Forecasts

Reliable projections for the markets comprising the digital economy


Nakono is building a model of the digital economy – past, present and future.

Our forecast model covers the years 2000 to 2025, encompasses up to 70 countries and includes projections for:

  • The main markets within the digital economy
  • Companies who are major actors in their markets
  • Key macroeconomic indicators

Nakono’s forecasts are based on a novel axiomatic methodology where new forecasts are the logically derived from other forecasts, industry data, financial data and powerful predictions about the future.

You can purchase our forecasts individually in a spreadsheet format or access the content using our numeric search product, Nakono Fusion.

Numbers You Can Trust

Connected, deductive thinking

  • Directionally correct: Our enviable 10 year track record validates the correctness of our forecasts.
     
  • Calibrated: We use accurate, trusted industry data and financial data to make sure our forecasts are based on historic and current facts
     
  • Self-consistent: Our logical, deductive methodology results in forecasts that are consistent with each other.

Here is a summary of the areas where we offer forecasts:

Macro and Demographic

This section includes forecasts for key indicators like population, households urbanisation GDP, GDP per capita, GDP growth and consumer spending and together represent a boundary within which the digital economy is developing.

Internet Evolution

Forecasts for the technologies and markets that will take the Internet to the next level: Internet of Things (IoT), Smart Homes, Big Data and Artificial Intelligence.

Connected Devices

Connected devices represents the places where we access the Internet.

This section includes forecasts for smartphones, tablets, desktop and portable PCs, smart TVs and wearables.

Once dominated by the desktop PC the connected devices space now includes a range of device types and, with the advent of wearables, promises in the future to include micro devices that are included on or even inside the body.

Digital Media & Advertising

This section includes forecasts for new media formats such as digital music, over-the-top (OTT) internet television, online film, online news and ebooks. You will also find forecasts for digital advertising, including mobile advertising.

Social and Web Services

This section includes forecasts for social media and the key online service categories such as payments and e-commerce.

Upcoming Disruption

Here you will find forecasts for the new markets that will considerably increase the value and reach of the digital economy in the coming decades: eHealth, financial services, driverless cars, 3D printing, drones and robotics and markets that are enabled by peer-to-peer sharing.

Available Datasets


This section summarises the datasets that are currently available as part of the Forecasts element of Nakono Fusion.

In addition to the Forecasts outlined below, Nakono Fusion also contains a wealth of Industry Data and Company Financial Data, all of which is instantly accessible via the search box at the top of this page.

Data Included:35 parameters
245 datapoints
Period:2012 to 2018
Frequency:Annual
Format:Excel spreadsheet

These figures show the number of Connected Television homes in different regions around the world, broken down by the means used (Smart TV, Connected Gaming Console, Connected Blu-ray Player, Consumer Set Top Box).

The time-series show figures back to 2012 and forward to 2018. It is clear from these figures that the number of connected TV homes is expanding rapidly, by all 4 different mechanisms. The total number of unique connected TV homes will increase by more than 3.5 times between 2012 and 2018.

Data Included:1173 parameters
45,035 datapoints
Period:1980 to 2021
Frequency:Annual
Format:Excel spreadsheet

Using IMF data and other sources where necessary, we have compiled GDP series for 187 countries. These are brought together in regional groupings to demonstrate the overall trends at country, regional and global levels.

To enable a full understanding of the economic situation in a given country, we have provided GDP figures in current prices, based on constant prices (which exclude the effect of inflation), on a per capita basis and finally on a Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) basis.

As well as historical data, we have also included projections of the change in GDP for the years 2016 to 2021.

Data Included:193 parameters
1673 datapoints
Period:2012 to 2020
Frequency:Annual
Format:Excel spreadsheet

These time series project Facebook’s growth for more than 50 countries to 2020.

The number of monthly active users (MAUs) for Facebook alone will grow at a faster rate than the overall number of social networking users.

Projections of Facebook revenues based on geography are included up to 2020 and these show a global quadrupling of revenues between 2013 and 2020.

Data Included:235 parameters
5822 datapoints
Period:2000 to 2025
Frequency:Annual
Format:Excel spreadsheet

This dataset includes historic data and projections for the number of fixed broadband subscriptions for 71 countries worldwide from 2000 to 2025. The term ‘fixed broadband’ is defined as a fixed line connection to the internet with a download speed of at least 256 kbit/s.

Cable, xDSL and fibre connections are included. Fixed wireless connections (which contribute negligibly to the figures) are excluded.

Figures are provided from 2000 to 2025 for (1) fixed broadband subscriptions (in thousands); (2) penetration of fixed broadband subscriptions to population (percent) and (3) penetration of fixed broadband subscriptions to households (percent).

Data Included:166 parameters
4316 datapoints
Period:2000 to 2025
Frequency:Annual
Format:Excel spreadsheet

Using a range of different sources, we have both historical data and future projections for the number of households and the average size of those households for more than 70 countries.

The data sources used include international agencies (e.g. UN-ECE, UN Global Urban Observatory) but also individual national data sources wherever these were available.

The number of households around the world is set to continue to rise, particularly in developing nations. The average household size will decrease around the world between 2015 and 2025 although the overall household size remains much higher in the Middle East and Africa than in Europe and North America.

Data Included:33 parameters
260 datapoints
Period:1994 to 2039
Frequency:Annual
Format:Excel spreadsheet

A series of forecasts including the total spending on the Internet broken down by consumer spending (including subcategories) and business spending.

Total internet spending will nearly double between 2012 and 2018. Beyond the overall internet spending, we have developed projections for the economic impact of the Internet of Things (IoT) which breakdown total internet spending into that on the 'pre-IoT Internet' and the 'IoT Internet'.

The IoT spending will make up 49% of total internet spending by 2039. The final set of forecasts relate to the number of 'things' which will comprise the IoT, broken down into individuals, physical objects (personal devices, home devices, automotive devices and industry) and services.

The number of things connected by the IoT will more than triple between 2012 and 2018.

Data Included:330 parameters
4027 datapoints
Period:2005 to 2020
Frequency:Annual
Format:Excel spreadsheet

This dataset contains projections for the size of the over-the-top (OTT) internet television market worldwide.

The total market is served by several hundred dedicated services which offer a range of professionally-produced, long form filmed entertainment content.

The definition of whether a service counts as ‘OTT internet TV’ or not is somewhat loose, but for the purposes of the forecasts presented here we define an OTT service as one that (i) can be accessed by any internet user; (ii) ‘looks like and feels like’ regular television.

This definition would therefore exclude situations where a major sports tournament distributes certain content on an internet website or via a YouTube channel, which we regard as ‘internet video’. Also excluded are situations where Pay-TV providers offer services that are distributed over the internet, but are only available to their existing video subscribers.

Data Included:180 parameters
1620 datapoints
Period:2012 to 2020
Frequency:Annual
Format:Excel spreadsheet

This dataset includes historical figures and future projections for the total number of individual internet users in terms of monthly active users.

All series are provided separately for all major countries and also as continental blocks (including all smaller countries within those blocks).

As well as total number of internet users, series are provided for the penetration in terms of total population and also in terms of population aged between 8 and 80 i.e. addressable population from a consumer perspective.

Data Included:425 parameters
3388 datapoints
Period:2013 to 2020
Frequency:Annual
Format:Excel spreadsheet

These forecasts segment the total revenues earned by the world’s record labels into physical formats (mails CD and vinyl), digital formats (downloads and streaming services) and advertising.

Of particular note is the increasingly dominant role of premium music subscription services, which are typified by services such as Spotify and Apple Music.

Data Included:152 parameters
1062 datapoints
Period:2008 to 2020
Frequency:Annual
Format:Excel spreadsheet

This dataset combines historic actuals from 2008 with future projections to 2020 for the world's largest premium internet television service.

The strong historic growth is matched by a future trend that will see Netflix emerge as the world's first, and largest television service brand whose total subscribership will dwarf those of the largest Pay-TV operators and terrestrial broadcasters.

Netflix has many levers which can be pulled to drive future grown such as investment in localised content which will stimulate demand, striking carriage deals with established TV platforms, expenditure on in-country marketing - still completely absent in many internal markets - and horizontal integration into other major content categories, such as sports.

Data Included:138 parameters
2478 datapoints
Period:2000 to 2025
Frequency:Annual
Format:Excel spreadsheet

These forecasts define how much consumers will spend online to 2025, which is defined as ‘online retail expenditure’.

Also included is the amount spent online per month by the average Internet user. This average monthly spending level has been calculated by dividing the total retail spending for a given year by the average number of active Internet users for that year.

The term ‘online retail’ refers to where consumers buy new products or services using electronic devices that are connected to the internet. Any device can be used to effect the sale and any electronic payment method can be used. The figures reported here refer to the total gross value of all online retail transactions.

Specifically, we consider that business-to-business (B2B) transactions are part of the wider e-Commerce market but are not part on the online retail market.

Data Included:126 parameters
2016 datapoints
Period:2005 to 2020
Frequency:Annual
Format:Excel spreadsheet

An extensive range of data that captures the rise and fall of the physical video market in 19 countries throughout Europe.

With very few market exceptions – Germany being one – physical video is now in terminal decline and attempts by the industry to introduce yet more physical formats will fail to change the overall direction of the market, which is strongly in the direction of digital, not physical formats.

Here you will see in spectacular style two many format replacement cycles – first from VHS to DVD and then from DVD to Blu-ray – unfold in 19 markets across Europe.

Data Included:158 parameters
4108 datapoints
Period:2000 to 2025
Frequency:Annual
Format:Excel spreadsheet

This Dataset is the result of analysing historic data and projected increases for the population in 187 countries worldwide.

We scrutinised the extensive material published by The World Bank, IMF and national country statistics bodies – which frequently do not agree – in order to complies a single, consolidated view of population growth worldwide.

The data is presented in two separate data tables, one covering all ages and one that is restricted to the age band 8 to 80 years. Nakono uses the 8-80 cut as a basis for many of our own forecast models because it excludes the 15% of the population which generates negligible revenue in most market situations.

Data Included:69 parameters
897 datapoints
Period:2010 to 2022
Frequency:Annual
Format:Excel spreadsheet

For 15 countries and all main geographical regions, this forecast contains both historical data back to 2010 and forecasts to 2022 for the total number of smart homes.

In addition, the forecast also includes projections for the total amount of consumer spending on smart home devices and services and the average retail expenditure per smart household.

Data Included:356 parameters
5764 datapoints
Period:2008 to 2025
Frequency:Annual
Format:Excel spreadsheet

This forecast covers the period from 2008 to 2025 and gives detailed a geographical breakdown by country and world region for smart TV unit shipments, the number of households having at least one smart TV set, the number of households that are active users of smart TV and the installed base of smart TV sets.

Data Included:935 parameters
16,959 datapoints
Period:2003 to 2025
Frequency:Annual
Format:Excel spreadsheet

These detailed tables show in dramatic terms how the worldwide smartphone industry was transformed by Apple (iOS) and Google (Android) who completely displaced Nokia (Symbian) and Blackberry in less than 10 years.

Data Included:23 parameters
161 datapoints
Period:2014 to 2020
Frequency:Annual
Format:Excel spreadsheet

This dataset includes worldwide forecasts to 2020 for each of the major segments of the wearable technology market: smart watches, smart glasses, fitness and activity trackers and sports performance monitors. In terms of market value, the wearables segment will in the future be dominated by smart watches.

One of the reasons for this is what we project will be an increasingly dominant role by Apple, which will have the effect of raising the average market price. Further ahead, we see technical advancements allowing smart phone vendors to introduce ‘wearalone’ smart watches that will have the effect of expanding the smart watch market.